Fitch Rating has projected Naira to be ₦1,450 to a US dollar at the end of 2024 l.
This is the opposite of Goldman Sachs prediction on the value of Naira at the end of the year.
The Director at Fitch Ratings, Gaimin Nonyane, disclosed this on Tuesday during a sovereign rating webinar focused on Nigeria and Egypt.
The prediction is as a result of Nigeria decision to float the local currency as Naira is still finding its feet. It is still in price discovery mode. So a lot of volatility in the near term should be expected.
Gaimin said there is the expectation of multilateral donor funding coming in Q3 this year in addition to improved oil receipts. So that should help to reduce volatility somewhat by Q3 this year.
“We project that it will average about 1200/dollar this year and end the year round 1450/dollar. And in terms of next year, we see a gradual depreciation but it also depends largely on the foreign exchange reforms momentum. So, this is our baseline scenario on the basis that the momentum continues at the current pace.”
He added that “Currently, we see a path to a sustainable recovery in CBN foreign exchange position. And sustained current account surpluses.
“Currently, the current account surplus is low, below one per cent of the GDP, although they are experiencing some surpluses, it is still not significant in addition to that, if we see a sustained reduction in inflation and greater stability in the foreign exchange markets, and one key factor is the tax revenue.
“We need to see stronger mobilisation of domestic non-oil revenue. So all of these combined collectively, it’s not one or the other, which could potentially lead to an upgrade.”
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