In 2023, China’s population declined for a second year in a row due to a record low birth rate and a wave of COVID-19 deaths that coincided with the lifting of strict lockdowns.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s population fell by 2.08 million, or 0.15%, to 1.409 billion in 2023. Long-term U.N. forecasters predict that China’s population would fall by 109 million by 2050, which is more than three times smaller than their previous estimate from 2019.
Due to the country’s growing urbanization during the 35 years (1980–2015) one-child policy and its implementation, birth rates have been falling for decades. Similar to past economic expansions in South Korea and Japan, a significant portion of China’s rural farm population moved into cities, where it is more expensive to raise a family.
In 2023, China’s desire to have more children was further stifled as youth unemployment reached all-time highs, earnings for many white-collar workers declined, and a crisis in the property sector—where more than two-thirds of household wealth is held—grew worse.
The new data confirms worries that the growth prospects of the second-largest economy in the world are deteriorating as a result of a decline in workers and customers, and that indebted local governments are being further burdened by the mounting expenses of retirement pensions and senior care.
UN estimates indicate that India overtook China as the world’s most populated country last year, igniting a renewed discussion about the benefits of shifting some supply chains centered in China to other markets, particularly as geopolitical tensions between Beijing and Washington increase.