The growth rate of Nigeria and other West African nations is expected to increase from an estimated 3.6 percent in 2023 to 4.2 percent in 2024 and 4.4 percent in 2025.
Kevin Urama, the Vice-President and Chief Economist of the African Development Bank (AfDB), mentioned this during Thursday’s presentation of the African Economic Outlook 2024.
According to the News Agency of Nigeria, the report was launched during the bank’s ongoing 2024 Annual Meetings in Nairobi, Kenya.
The theme of the meeting is “Driving Africa’s Transformation: The Reform of the Global Financial Architecture.”
”Growth is projected to pick up in West Africa, rising from an estimated 3.6 per cent in 2023 to 4.2 per cent in 2024 and consolidating at 4.4 per cent the following year.
”This is an upgrade of 0.3 percentage points for 2024 over the January Macro Economic Outlook (MEO) projections, reflecting stronger growth upgrades in the region’s large economies (Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, and Senegal),” he said.
Urama stated that African economies have remained resilient despite multiple shocks, with their average growth expected to stabilize at 4.0 percent in 2024-25, compared to an estimated 3.1 percent in 2023.
He mentioned that the average real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was estimated to have decreased from 4.1 percent in 2022 to 3.1 percent in 2023.
He attributed the decline to several factors, including ongoing high food and energy prices, which resulted from the continued impacts of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
He also pointed out that climate change, extreme weather events affecting agricultural productivity and power generation, and instances of political instability and conflict in some African countries were contributing factors.
According to him, real GDP growth is projected to increase to 3.7 percent in 2024 and 4.3 percent in 2025, surpassing the 4.1 percent seen in 2022.
”This is as most of the effects of the above factors weighing on growth in 2023 fades away.
”The projected rebound in Africa’s average growth will be led by East Africa (up by 3.4 percentage points) and Southern Africa and West Africa (each rising by 0.6 percentage points).
”Critically, 40 countries will post higher growth in 2024 relative to 2023; 17 economies are projected to grow by more than five per cent in 2024 and may rise to 25 in 2025.
”This is remarkable, and Africa will retain its 2023 ranking as the second fastest growing region after Asia in 2024-25 with projected GDP growth exceeding the global average of 3.2 per cent in 2024,’’ he said.
According to Urama, average growth in oil-exporting countries is expected to decline from an estimated 3.7 per cent in 2023 to 3.5 per cent in 2024 but could pick up to four per cent in 2025.
”The projected slowdown in 2024 reflects lower oil production targets set by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
”Also, the lower growth projections in South Sudan following the vandalising of an oil pipeline due to the ongoing conflict and uncertainty over new mechanisms for Angola’s oil exports following its exit from OPEC.
”Meanwhile, growth in other (non-oil) resource-intensive economies on the continent is estimated to improve strongly from 0.3 per cent in 2023 to 2.7 per cent and consolidate at 3.3 per cent projected for 2024 and 2025.
”The sharp increase in growth will be driven largely by a rebound in China’s demand for metals and minerals linked to expansions in smart grids and construction”, Urama said.
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